bet the farm

Possibly nothing more than a case of real estate as wager stakes, but also plausibly because farmers cannot avoid gambling and the stakes are financial ruin: they must make many decisions (such as which crops to plant each year, and how to manage livestock), and outside factors such as weather or changing commodity markets can dash their hopes. Thus, when making a decision they must ask themselves whether they are confident enough to bet the farm as the wager stakes.

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bet the farm (third-person singular simple present bets the farm, present participle betting the farm, simple past and past participle bet the farm)

1. (idiomatic) To be absolutely certain, to have no doubts.

   I'd be surprised if those two are still dating come Christmas, but I'm not betting the farm on a breakup just yet.

   • 2016 October 24, Owen Gibson, “Is the unthinkable happening – are people finally switching the football off?”, in The Guardian‎, London:

     Since Rupert Murdoch famously bet the farm on Premier League football to rescue Sky TV in 1991, it has been the catnip that has underpinned subscriber loyalty and, even in a far more complicated media landscape, is seen as so vital as to be worth almost any price.

2. To make a substantial wager or risk.

• bet one's bottom dollar, bet one's boots, bet the ranch, bet the house

• buy the farm
• give away the store
• play with house money